BofA analyst John Murphy said in his annual Car Wars forecast report that by 2025, Tesla will lead the way in electric vehicles in the U.S. as rivals launch 135 new electric vehicles. Market dominance could be replaced by GM or Ford.
Tesla will continue to grow as EV sales continue to soar, Murphy wrote, but its market share will fall from more than 70% today to around 11% by 2025. Tesla has a loyal following, but the company has been unable to keep pace with the introduction of new models from General Motors, Ford and several foreign automakers.
Murphy said: “For the past 10 years, Elon has been operating in a vacuum without much competition. In the next four years, this vacuum will be filled in abundance by very good products, not economical electric vehicles, but real Good products.”
Bank of America expects annual U.S. electric vehicle sales to grow eightfold from about 400,000 last year to more than 3.2 million by 2025, putting every company launching a new model — including Tesla — into getting more sales. Murphy expects GM and Ford to lead the market, each capturing about 15 percent of the market.
Murphy said GM plans to launch 17 new electric vehicles in the U.S. market between 2023 and 2026, while Ford will launch six. During the period, Volkswagen will launch 11 electric vehicles, and South Korea’s Hyundai and Kia will launch 13, and they are all likely to be winners and take share from Tesla.
Tesla has announced plans for a Cybertruck, a semi-truck and a sports car. Murphy said Tesla will also expand in China and Europe, but not as rapidly as it has in the past.
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